Draft Kings: Value Plays – Week 7

I got a couple requests to write with more consideration for DFS players. Listed below are all of the players I felt were undervalued and could out perform their listed prices. Unfortunately this is all focused on Draft Kings pricing. A few of these are worthy of building your lineup around. Rostering a player such as Mario Pender or Nick Chubb for $3,000 gives your roster great flexibility and outstanding potential as a whole. I factored in prices and match-ups when listing these players. I’m not going to give any lineups on here, just some players to consider. I did tweet a couple of sleeper line up rosters on @PutBoobieIn just to give an idea of where you can go with your roster with a couple “value” guy’s on it. Keep in mind some of these are really deep sleepers. Here are some value guys to consider when factoring in past performances and matchups:

THURS/FRI SLATE

QB Justin Holman (UCF) vs. BYU $5,400

Holman is the 8th QB listed in terms of price. I do feel that last weeks defensive performance was kind of a fluke for BYU. But what Chuckie Keeton’s backup, Darell Garretson did was impressive. The QB wen 19/25 for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns while throwing no INT’s. He also ran for a touchdown. Holman hasn’t been amazing this season, but is coming off of back to back 2 passing touchdown performances. In week one, the sophomore quarterback ran for two touchdowns against Penn State. In this slate he could provide a decent return if he comes anywhere close to what Garretson did last week. It is worth noting that Holman hasn’t thrown for over 210 yards in any of UCF’s four games this season. He has appeared to be a virtual lock for around 23-30 rushing yards each game. There aren’t many QBs to choose from in this slate, so he could payoff for you.

RB Marteze Waller (Fresno State) at UNLV – $5,500

This isn’t a great value since he his the third highest priced running back in this slate, but this is a fantastic matchup. UNLV has the second worst rushing total per game at 293 yards/game. They’ve also given up 17 rushing touchdowns. The last time Waller had a matchup as close to as favorable as this one he ran for 163 yards in addition to 25 yards receiving. He has reached the end zone half of Fresno’s games this year and could have another nice game.

WR Breshad Perriman (UCF) vs. BYU – $4,200

BYU is giving up 285 passing yards per game this season. Last week against Utah State, the Cougars gave up 321 yards passing. Number one WR Hunter Sharp totaled 5 receptions for 173 yards and 1 touchdown. Perriman could provide owners with a similar day to due to his playmaking ability. Although he’s only caught 9 passes all season, he’s averaging 28.5 yards per catch. If UCF makes it a point to get the ball to Perriman he could be in for a game. Considering the lack of depth in this slate, he’s not a terrible option. More of the boom or must variety though. Perriman has caught a TD in each of the past two games.

WR Devonte Boyd (UNLV) vs. Fresno State – $4,400

Fresno State has allowed 18 passing touchdowns this season. They are also giving up 246 passing yards per game. With fellow WR Devante Davis likely to be on the sidelines again, Boyd presumes the number one receiver position. Considering the lack of talent in this slate, and how bad Fresno State has been against the pass, Davis could out perform his price.

EARLY SAT SLATE

QB Nate Sudfeld (Indiana) at Iowa – $4,700

This is no guarantee, but rather just a gut feeling that Sudfeld finally gets things rolling. Sudfeld has scored over 24 fantasy points in 2/5 games this season on DK. Iowa hasn’t been a terrible pass defense throughout the entire season, but they have showed vulnerability in a couple different games. In week one they gave up 380 yards and 2 touchdowns to Northern Iowa quarterback Sawyer Kollmorgan. In week 3, Sam Richardson went 25/36 for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns against them. Sudfeld has had a couple of dud performances, but if he plays to his potential he could provide a very nice return for those who gambled on him. At $4,700 you could gain have a lot of options if you do choose to roster him. Boom or bust type roster addition.

QB Sam B. Richardson (Iowa State) vs. Toledo – $5,300

Toledo’s pass defense is fourth worst in the country in yardage (326 yds/gm) and tied for second worst in the country in passing touchdowns allowed (18 touchdowns). Opposing quarterbacks are also completing 69.9% of passing attempts which is also fourth worst in the country. Simply put the Toledo pass defense has been pretty terrible this year. Richardson is coming off of back to back 200+ yard, 2 touchdown performances against Baylor and Oklahoma State. Richardson also has dual threat capabilities as he ran for 99 yards and 1 touchdown against Baylor. Richardson leads the team with 258 rushing yards this season. He could have a nice game against Toledo this weekend.

QB P.J. Walker (Temple) vs. Tulsa – $5,900

Tulsa is giving up 290 yards/game this season through the air and has also given up 15 passing touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks have accumulated a 165.5 quarterback rating which is 5th worst in the country for team defensive statistics. P.J. Walker has completed 66% of his passes this season, and has thrown for 2 touchdowns in every game but one this season. Walker also has dual threat capabilities, as he ran for 71 yards in week two vs. Navy. He has also ran for touchdowns in 2/4 games for Temple. Tulsa is coming off of a defensive performance where they gave up 298 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. Walker could have a day. Decent price too.

RB Nick Chubb (Georgia) at Missouri – $3,000

With Todd Gurley recently being suspended, the bulk of the carries should go to Chubb. Fellow RB Sony Michel is battling injuries. Meanwhile the Missouri defense has allowed four running backs to go for over 100 yards this season (Zenner – South Dakota, Kareem Hunt – Toledo, Tevin Coleman – Indiana, Mike Davis – South Carolina). Nick Chubb isn’t Todd Gurley but he is an elite talent. Keep in mind that UGA’s passing game has been virtually non existent though, so 7 and 8 man fronts are expected.

RB Mario Pender (Florida State) at Syracuse – $3,000

This is potentially the steal of the weekend. Karlos Williams will most likely not be playing, which opens the door for Mario Pender to receive the bulk of the workload. Last weekend while filling in for Williams, Pender carried the ball 5 times for 70 yards and a touchdown to go along with 2 catches for 14 yards. Overall Syracuse has had a pretty decent run defense this season. But last week Louisville RB Brandon Radcliff carried the ball 23 times for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns. Pender could do the same, and with his $3,000 price tag could have a very nice return. The flexibility rostering Pender gives you is very valuable. Especially since he could be incredibly productive himself.

RB Delton Williams (Michigan State) at Purdue – $3,100

This is more of a deep sleeper, as I would much rather roster Pender. But when Michigan State has blown teams out this season, Delton Williams statistics have benefited immensely. For the most part Williams played a majority of his snaps in two games (Eastern Michigan & Wyoming) which were out of hand. In those two games, Williams totaled 147 yards and 4 touchdowns. Not bad. This game could get out of hand itself as Purdue is awful and Michigan State is pretty respectable. Rostering Williams is a huge gamble but if it works out it could pay off rostering him.

RB Derrick Henry (Alabama) at Arkansas – $4,200

Henry was less than impressive last week vs. Ole Miss (17 carries, 37 yards). It was his first game against a P5 opponent this season that he didn’t run for over 100 yards and 1 touchdown (WV – 113, FLA – 111). Fellow running back Kenyan Drake is likely gone for the season, which will only help both Yeldon and Henry as this was very much an RBBC. Yeldon was much more productive than Henry was against Ole Miss. Its no guarantee Henry is productive on Saturday, but the value you could get out of him at $4,200 is pretty decent. If you are thinking about rostering Henry, please note that Arkansas is only allowing 139 yards/game on the ground. Not a sure fire bet but one that could pay off.

RB Terry Swanson (Toledo) at Iowa State – $4,400

Kareem Hunt was out last weekend and Terry Swanson filled in admirably. He totaled 226 yards and scored 1 touchdown. Monitor Hunt’s ankle injury, if he’s unable to go which seems fairly likely, Swanson could have a nice performance against Iowa State. The Cyclone defense is giving up 207 rush yards/game and has allowed 18 rushing touchdowns this season.

WR John Ross (Washington) vs. California – $3,900

California’s defense has given up the country’s worst, 428 yards/game as well as 21 passing touchdowns which also ranks last in the country. Although its no guarantee that Washington tears apart this defense it definitely could happen. The only reason I’m pessimistic is that Cals last three opponents have thrown 74, 67, and 70 times against them. Quarterback Cyler Miles season high in passing attempts is 29. If trends continue though, Washington could have a field day through the air and these two receivers are decently priced. Ross is more of a big play receiver with 9 receptions for 240 yards and 3 touchdowns. Where Mickens is more of a volume type and a safer play.

WR Jayden Mickens (Washington) vs. California – $4,100

As I mentioned Mickens is more of a “safe” play. As he leads the team in receptions with 23. This is all based on how terrible Cal’s pass defense has been and Mickens relatively low price. Washington isn’t Arizona, Colorado, or Washington State. Opposing receivers have absolutely torched this defense over the past three weeks (River Cracraft 11 rec, 172 yds, 3 tds – Nelson Spruce 19 rec 179 yds 3 tds – Cayleb Jones 13 rec 186 yds 3 tds). Taking a gamble on one of the receivers could payoff big, but like I said not a sure thing because of the lack of volume in terms of Washington’s air attack.

WR Jalen Fitzpatrick (Temple) vs. Tulsa – $4,800

Last week Rashard Higgins caught 6 passes for 178 yards and 4 touchdowns against this Tulsa defense. I already highlighted how bad Tulsa has been against the pass this season, but to make a long story short Fitzpatrick could have a day. Fitzpatrick has been fairly consistent this season as he’s caught a touchdown in every single game so far. He has also caught 5 passes in 3 of Temples 4 games this season. His yardage total has increased every week, and it could continue to be on the rise after this favorable matchup. Through four games, Fitzpatrick leads the Owls in receptions (19), yards (288) and touchdowns (4). Definitely a good option for the price.

LATE SAT SLATE

QB Nick Stevens (Colorado State) at Nevada – $4,000

Last week starting QB Garret Grayson was unable to finish the game due to injury and Stevens filled in fairly well. He went 4/8 for 62 yards and 1 touchdown coming off of the pine. If Grayson is unable to go, Stevens could provide you with great value at and entry level price. The last I heard (Wednesday) Grayson was limited in practice. There is a good chance that Grayson plays but if he doesn’t Stevens could make for a solid roster spot. Nevada’s pass defense is giving up 302 yards/game and has allowed 11 touchdowns. Rashard Higgins is a great WR and would make Stevens’ a legitimate threat to put up respectable numbers. Track Grayson’s progress.

RB Don Jackson (Nevada) vs. Colorado State – $3,900

Colorado State’s run defense isn’t the greatest (182 yds/game – 9 tds). Jackson is coming off of a less than impressive performance against Boise State (11 carries 22 yards). But if he continues to see the bulk of the workload outside of QB Cody Fajardo, he could put up respectable numbers against this rush defense. Jackson has ran for over 100 yards in 2/5 games this season. He’s averaging 17 carries/game and Colorado State’s rush defense is giving up 5.9 yds/carry. If your looking to capitalize on this matchup outside of Fajardo, Jackson is probably your best bet.

RB Gerald Johnson (Old Dominion) at UTEP – $4,500

UTEP is giving up 216 rush yards/game this season. They have also given up 11 rushing touchdowns. Gerald Johnson hasn’t been overly impressive this year but has totaled over 50 rushing yards in 5/6 games this season. He has also has at least 4 receptions in 3/6 games this season. He’s only reached the end-zone one time this season, but at his price he could provide decent value considering the slate and the favorable matchup. Old Dominion is pass happy for the most part, but Johnson is getting 17 touches/game. He’s more of a long shot but the matchup is there.

RB Matt Jones (Florida) vs. LSU – $5,200

In 3 games vs. P5 opponents, LSU is giving up 289 rush yards/game. They have also given up 16 rushing touchdowns this season. Matt Jones has scored a touchdown in each of Florida’s games this season except one, and that was against Alabama. In two of Florida’s past three games Jones has ran for over 100 yards (156 vs. Kentucky – 114 vs. Tennessee). LSU’s inability to stop the run this season has been astounding. LSU will probably load the box since Jeff Driskel isn’t very good, but regardless Jones could still have a nice performance. Especially considering his $5,200 price-tag.

WR Dominic Rufran (Wyoming) at Hawaii – $4,300

Last season Rufran had 75 catches for 960 yards and 8 touchdowns. This season he has yet to find the endzone but is leading the team in catches (20) and yards (326) through five games. In 2/3 games he didn’t play Oregon or Michigan State, he went for over 100 yards (119 vs. Air Force – 110 vs. Florida Atlantic). Hawaii is giving up 252 yards and 2 touchdowns/game through the air this season. Last week Rice had two receivers go for over 80 yards and 1 touchdown vs. Hawaii. Rufran is the number one receiving option for Wyoming and could out perform his price-tag.

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